Justifiable Optimism for 2010

martinsosnoffThere’s so much bubbling beneath the surface of financial markets that over-focusing on monthly economic indicators misses the big picture of synchronic growth throughout the world. My pivotal leading indicator on unemployment and employment stats was the increase in part-time workers, positive these past several months. It kept me bullish.
The Fed won’t get in the way of a bull market. I’m projecting 10-year Treasuries at a 4.5% yield late in 2010. The level of Fed funds is irrelevant, even assuming 2%, possibly even bullish, as it could reduce excessive speculation in gold, oil and other commodities tied to futures markets. For these operators I wish burnt fingers for destabilizing our financial markets.
Then, the final washout of inventories plus a better selling rate for cars gets us to normalized GDP of 3.5% for the first half of 2010. This is without any pick-up in capital goods spending and new home construction. The back half of 2010 still rests in fog. You need to make some assumptions on the personal savings rate and consumer spending.
I expect positive employment numbers next month or in January and each succeeding month next year. This is an enormous confidence-builder, and will touch off consumer spending, home buying and automobile demand.
This is an excerpt from an article written on Forbes.com by Martin T. Sosnoff. Martin is chairman and founder of Atalanta/Sosnoff Capital, a private investment management company with more than $10 billion in assets under management. I think he knows of what he writes. Everywhere I go I hear people speaking of optimism for 2010. It is refreshing to finally see a light at the end of this economic tunnel!

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